tigergoo评论：主权债务危机实质是偿付能力危机，对于没有货币主权的国家，偿付能力危机将导致市场崩溃，对于有货币主权的国家，可以肆意印刷本币还债，但结局便是1923年的德国魏玛共和国的超级通货膨胀。
刘军洛兄说今年五、六月份美元指数会暴涨，年底可能站上85，今晚已经到84.35。
Chris Laird 预测是美元指数年底达91，如此则资本市场必将发生比2008年更严重的危机。
看到加里·詹金斯(Gary Jenkins)的预测，tigergoo想起来刘军洛兄在他书里的预测“2009年通货膨胀这四个字，被人类的经济学家们到处放大和传播。2009年世界所有市场的交易都建立在通货膨胀这个价格预期中，这种货币主义，头脑简单的推断，将摧毁今天大部分交易者的财富与灵魂，甚至肉体。”“世界性第二次的大萧条正向人类社会袭来，他的规模与杀伤力将远大于2008年的世界性大萧条。”“大萧条将关闭世界贸易体系，制造出未来区域战争冲突......”“未来只有二种商品将是可以生存下来的商品，一种是美元现金，一种是美国军火，其它任何一种投资工具都将是死亡工具。”
tigergoo完全同意加里·詹金斯(Gary Jenkins)和刘军洛兄的预测，但tigergoo认为，未来只有实物黄金和军火是可以生存下来的商品，包括美元现金在内的所有投资品都将是死亡工具。
资本市场或面临百年来最大危机
伦敦益华证券公司(Evolution Securities Ltd)信贷策略部门负责人加里·詹金斯(Gary Jenkins)称，资本市场可能正面临着一个世纪以来最严重的危机，原因是全球各国政府在防避主权债务风险的问题上几乎无能为力。
詹金斯表示：“资本市场可能很快就会陷入过去100年以来规模最大的金融危机。在政府债务本身就已成为一个问题的情况下，政治和经济变革的可能性已经变得大得多。”
在欧元区各国和国际货币基金组织(IMF)批准总额1100亿欧元(约合1430亿美元)的希腊援助计划以后，投资者的回应是不愿买入欧元区债务负担沉重国家的国债，原因是担心这项援助计划无法解决希腊的财政危机或阻止这场危机蔓延到欧元区的其他国家。
Capital Markets Face Worst Crisis in 100 Years, Evolution Says
May 05, 2010, 4:07 AM EDT Bloomberg By John Glover
Capital markets may be facing the biggest crisis in a century with governments all but powerless to ward off a sovereign debt disaster, according to Gary Jenkins at Evolution Securities Ltd.
Investors greeted plans for a 110 billion-euro ($143 billion) bailout of Greece by shunning the bonds of Europe’s debt-ridden nations on concern the aid package won’t solve the country’s deficit crisis or prevent contagion. Credit-default swaps on Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy surged and the euro tumbled.
“The capital markets could soon be in the midst of the largest financial crisis of the last 100 years,” said London- based Jenkins, Evolution’s head of credit strategy. “With government debt itself perceived to be the problem the potential for political and economic change is much greater.”
A continuation of yesterday’s trading patterns will mean the European Union will have to act and the only card it has left to play is to ask the European Central Bank to buy government bonds, Jenkins said.
Such purchases would mean either buying bonds on the secondary market -- the more likely option -- or promising to finance Greece’s planned bond redemptions, or both, according to Padhraic Garvey, a strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam.
‘Nuclear Option’
The ECB purchasing bonds “would be the nuclear option as it would taint the ECB both politically and in terms of its asset/liability mix,” Garvey wrote in a note to investors. “That said, if we approach the brink, it may just be the only viable option left. Only the ECB can print euros to save the system.”
Other possibilities include governments forcing domestic investors to buy their bonds, or “for policy makers and Greek holders alike to cross their collective fingers and hope that some positive follow-through begins to dominate in the weeks and months to come,” Garvey wrote.
The problem with doing nothing is that Portugal, Spain and Ireland risk being “dragged further into the Greek slipstream,” according to Garvey.
“These are worrying times, and in fact more worrying than last week,” when the bailout package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund was in prospect. “This week, both of those items are now behind us and thereby in the price.”
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