【译按/陈逸婷】6月初，卡达爆发外交危机，沙乌地阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合大公国、巴林与埃及等海湾国家接连宣布与卡达断交，各国除了驱逐卡达大使，也对卡达发布贸易与旅游禁令。沙乌地阿拉伯阵营批评卡达和国营半岛电视台与伊朗之间的合作关系，并指控卡达资助恐怖组织，然而卡达否认这些指控，并自陈向来与美方合作反恐以及打击伊斯兰国。
沙乌地阿拉伯等国以“反恐之名”与卡达断交，并透过各自的媒体发言，双方各说各话，本篇文章作者整理了双方阵营之间长期以来的矛盾与紧张关系，也指出了美国新上任的川普政府在这当中扮演的关键角色，有助于读者进一步瞭解卡达的外交危机背后，中东区域各阵营之间的张力与角力。
本文翻译成中文后，为使文章阅读流畅，我在不影响原意下适度润饰译文，并加上主、副标题。
与卡达断交的国家示意图。(图片来源：维基百科;后加上中文)
卡达的外交危机并非最近才有，而是多年累积下来的结果。
沙乌地阿拉伯与卡达之间、长期处于不稳定状态的关系，可以回溯到1992年，一次造成两位卡达士兵以及一位沙乌地阿拉伯军官死亡的边界冲突事件;1994年，叶门内战中，卡达又因支持要求独立的南叶门而与沙乌地阿拉伯站在对立面;1995年，卡达反对将沙乌地阿拉伯任命为海湾合作委员会(GCC)秘书长的协定，卡达因此被迫离开会议室，更放话威胁要抵制委员会的所有会议。
卡达与邻近的巴林，则是长期受侯瓦尔群岛的冲突所影响，使得这两个国家亦陷入紧绷的局面——1986年，战争曾一触即发，后因沙乌地阿拉伯的干涉而被避免，一直到1997年，卡达与巴林两国才建立了外交关系。
埃及方面，则在1994到1996年之间与沙乌地阿拉伯进行情报合作，透过集团结盟寻求双重政变的可能性：不只针对卡达新的伊斯兰领袖Hamad(现任伊斯兰领袖的父亲)也针对统治家族“Al Thani”。但在政变的最后的一刻，遭军官泄漏。卡达立即向美国求援，并与华盛顿签署一份安全条约(华盛顿在由卡达资助其后勤的区域中拥有一个大型军事基地)以换取“卡达政治角色的自由”。
卡达试图加深与埃及反对派——穆斯林兄弟会[1]——的联系，来作为反抗的方案，这变成一种策略性的合作。在埃及第二任总统Nasser的统治下，穆斯林兄弟会逃离埃及并在海湾国家中取得了优势地位，他们在沙乌地阿拉伯发展了教育课程并建立海湾区域的教育与健康机构。与其合作是很自然的，不过卡达做的不只如此，更与其主导的重要人物例如Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi等人进行政治合作。
阿拉伯联合大公国(UAE)过去对于政治角色没有太大兴趣，即便成为中东区域的经济中心和财富集散地，阿联也从不扮演主要的政治角色。不过，在过去的6年中，区域与其地缘政治图谱有所改变，而阿联也因此在政治上变得至关重要。
这个变化与巴勒斯坦政治家、议会成员Mohammed Dahlan有关，在他否决了巴勒斯坦总统Mahmoud Abbas的国家计划并指控其贪腐行为后，便迁至阿联的阿布达比，Dahlan提出一项称为“不受穆斯林兄弟会影响的中东”的政治方案，并成功地游说阿联的权力核心人物Mohammed bin Zayed接受这个方案。阿联时期的Dahlan为沙乌地阿拉伯等国阵营未来要提出的阿拉伯政治方案埋下了种子。
敌对阵营与媒体争夺战
过去的20年间，卡达创造了庞大的媒体与制度版图，使它与美国联系起来并且在中东区域与国际间扮演关键的角色，像是杜哈宗教对话中心(Doha Center for Interfaith Dialogue)、美国穆斯林对话会议(Muslim-American Dialogue Conference)、萨班中东政策中心(Saban Center for Middle East Policy)，以及许多其他企业，和大型媒体工具，当中又以知名的“半岛电视台”(Al Jazeera Media Network)所经营的媒体网络为主。不仅如此，卡达还对教育机构进行大量投资，吸引以政治学为专长的国际大学在卡达建立分校，建置阿拉伯研究中心与政策研究，这些机构对于阿拉伯世界的学者、研究者和多数的研究生产者造成重大影响。
在1995到2015的几年间，卡达将自我标榜为“政治伊斯兰”，并与土耳其和苏丹的伊斯兰主义者密切互动、并且与在突尼西亚发生的人民革命站在同一阵线。这也是半岛电视台在对所有阿拉伯世界的反对运动建立政治支持网络后，所想要经营的方向——透过人们熟知的电视萤幕来达成。卡达将自身跟阿拉伯之春连结，使她与伊斯兰主义者崛起的命运相连、共同分享好与坏。这也确实发生了。2011年，卡达的希望随着阿拉伯之春和所伴随的希望而升起，然而这些希望很快地随着在埃及、叶门、突尼西亚和利比亚等地革命运动的失败，而成为泡影，卡达也共同承受了这些失败的恶果。
过去的两个月内，沙乌地阿拉伯与阿联透过他们的媒体工具对卡达进行猛烈攻击，根据巴林外交部的发言，这是为了阻止卡达以“煽动媒体”来支持伊朗。巴林是一个以什叶派教徒为多数、却被逊尼派家族所统治的国家，她指控伊朗从2011年开始介入其内部事务，并煽动其人民反对统治者。2014年，这三个国家便召回了她们在卡达首都杜哈的外交大使，要求卡达停止支持伊斯兰团体——特别是穆斯林兄弟会。
出人意料地，美国总统川普日前宣布“海湾国家说他们会与资助极端主义者的国家划清界线，而所有的证据都指向卡达”，又在推特上提到：“或许这就是终结恐怖主义梦魇的起点!”即便美国在卡达拥有中东地区最大的军事基地，有大约一万名美国士兵和美军指挥官办公室，也避免不了前美国前国防部长、前中情局局长Robert Gates召集一次针对卡达与穆斯林兄弟会之间的关系的讨论，并提到如果卡达持续支持穆斯林兄弟会，就会失去在其境内的美国军队。在这个讨论会上，共和党外交委员会主席Ed Royce表示[2]，如果杜哈不改变其作法的话，议会已经准备好将卡达境内的美军撤离到中东区域的其他国家。
此刻，在各阵营间出现的和谐与共识展现了它们想要与阿拉伯和许多国际派系——齐心协力围攻卡达、其盟友如穆斯林兄弟会，还有哈玛斯——的意图。自从川普造访阿联之后，产生的巨大转变是，阿联可以说服新任美国政府，卡达支持恐怖主义以及世界最激进的武力团体，包含哈玛斯、努斯拉阵线和其他团体。好几个礼拜以来，媒体不断释放卡达的负面消息，两周前美国政府告诉卡达，他们必须将哈玛斯驱逐出杜哈并且停止支持穆斯林兄弟会的活动。卡达为此告知哈玛斯现在区域正在变化而没人能够保护你，在其提议下，哈玛斯得试图提出一个新的务实的方案。
6月9日，位于南加萨走廊的巴勒斯坦民众上街示威声援卡达。(摄影：Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters)
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[1] 译注：穆斯林兄弟会为一伊斯兰人民运动团体，他们的信念是藉由伊斯兰律法，并以“伊斯兰作为解决方案”为基础建立一种世界秩序(又称哈里发)来击溃西方自由主义。
[2] 译注：在这场名为“美—沙关系的挑战与机会”讨论会中，Ed Royce清楚表明，并援用埃及、沙乌地阿拉伯、巴林以及阿联指出的“恐怖份子”就是穆斯林兄弟会和哈玛斯阵营，而美方相当“关切”这些组织与卡达的关系。
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Understanding the Qatar diplomatic crisis
The Qatar diplomatic crisis is certainly not the product of the current phase, but of many years. The relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been unsettled for years, and their relations reached to a border fighting that killed two Qatari soldiers and a Saudi officer in 1992. In 1994, Qatar stood against Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, where Qatar supported the demands of secession of the south Yemen. In 1995, Qatar also opposed the appointment of Saudi Arabia as secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), forcing Qatar to leave the conference room, threatening to boycott the council's sessions altogether. Qatar's relations with neighboring Bahrain also have always been beset by the conflict over Hawar Islands, which have plunged the two countries into a conflict that could have triggered a war in 1986 but Saudi intervention prevented that war. Qatar and Bahrain did not enjoy full diplomatic relations until 1997.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt sought within intelligence cooperation in 1994 and 1996 to support a double coup not against the new Emir "Hamad" (the father of current Emir) but also against the ruling family "Al Thani" by supporting a tribal alliance loyal to Saudi Arabia.But in the final hours before the coup d'état, it was revealed by an officer. Qatar immediately summoned The US, which had a simple air base to monitor the no-fly zone in Iraq, and held a security pact with Washington under which Washington owns a large military base in the region that Qatar finances its logistics in exchange for "Freedom of the political role for Qatar".
Qatar has sought to strengthen its links with the opponents of the Egyptian authority, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, as a form of resistance. This became a kind of strategic cooperation. The Muslim Brotherhood since they fled Egypt under Nasser's role has a good position in the Gulf states. They developed the educational curricula in Saudi Arabia and established the educational structures in the Gulf and the health structures. It was natural to cooperate with them, but Qatar went beyond cooperation in these specialized fields to a kind of Political cooperation where Qatar hosted important people like Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi and many.
The UAE was not interested in being a political player as much as it was to be the central axis of the Middle East economy and the place of the wealthy gathering in the Middle East without a major political role. Over the past six years, the region and its geopolitical map have changed and the UAE has become very much interested in being a key player, politically and a hub for the Middle East.
With moving of the Palestinian politician and parliament member Mohammed Dahlan to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates after bitter disagreements with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over the Palestinian national program and accusations of corruption. Dahlan, has a political project "Middle East free of the Muslim Brotherhood" he persuaded the powerful man of the UAE Mohammed bin Zayed to adopt this project, which happened. Dahlan's presence in the UAE is the seed of an Arab political project that includes the UAE, Egypt and later Saudi Arabia.
Over the past two decades, Qatar has built a huge media and institutional empire that links it with the Americans as a key player and engine in the Middle East and internationally. Such as Doha Center for Interfaith Dialogue, the Muslim-American Dialogue Conference, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and dozens of other initiatives, as well as large media tools, especially the Al Jazeera Media Network. This is in addition to the huge Qatari investment in educational institutions and attracting international universities specializing in politics with branches in Qatar as well as the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, which has the first impact on Arab academics and researchers and the largest producer of research in the Arab world.
Qatar presented itself to the region and its people through a picture, which was during the years of "95-2015", and this picture emerged through which allied with "political Islam" and the close with the Islamists of Turkey and Sudan and allied with the popular revolutions that began in Tunisia and ended in Tunisia. It is also the picture that Al-Jazeera has built on the Qatari political support network of all the Arab opposition movements, through which the people have known through its screen.
Linking Qatari politics to Arab spring projects and the rise of Islamists in the region have led to a "temporary" twinning that make them to share gains and losses. This is precisely what happened. Qatar's shares rose in the Arab spring and the waves of hopes that reached the region in 2011, but these hopes soon evaporated with the decline of spring in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia and its turmoil in Libya, Qatar also shared the decline and losses of the moment with its allies.
In the past two months, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, using their media tools, have launched a major attack on Qatar in an attempt, according to the Bahraini Foreign Ministry statement, to stop "media incitement" and support of Iranian groups in the region. Bahrain is a predominantly Shi'ite country governed by the Sunni royal family, which has accused Iran since 2011 of interfering in its internal affairs and inciting the Bahraini people against its rulers. This was not the first attempt by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to move against Qatar. In 2014, the three countries withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, demanding that Qatar stop supporting Islamic groups especially Muslim Brotherhood.
But it did not stop there. In a surprise move, US President Donald Trump said: "They "the Gulf states" said they would take a hard line on funding extremism and all reference was pointing to Qatar," he added on Twitter. "Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!" Given that Qatar hosts the largest American base in the Middle East, which has about ten thousand soldiers from the US forces and the Office of the commander of US forces. That did not prevent Robert Gates, the former US secretary of defense and former CIA director, from declaring at a gathering to discuss the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar that Qatar risks losing the presence of US troops on its land if it continues to support the Muslim Brotherhood.
In the same rally, Ed Royce, chairman of the Republican Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Congress was ready to consider moving an important US military base in Qatar elsewhere in the Middle East if Doha did not change its ways. This harmony and consensus among all parties in this time frame shows a great deal of concerted efforts among many Arab and international parties to besiege Qatar and those supported by Qatar such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
What has strongly changed now after Trump's visit is the UAE's ability to convince the new US administration that Qatar supports terrorism and some of the world's most radical forces, including Hamas, the Nusra Front and others. For weeks, there have been media attacks on Qatar and two weeks ago the US administration sent Qatar a message that they must expel Hamas from Doha and stop supporting Muslim Brotherhood activity. Qatar informed Hamas that the region is changing and no one can protect you. There, Hamas tried to issue a new charter to be more pragmatic on the advice of Turkey and Qatar.
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