中国步入动荡期

中国步入动荡期

综合近来的情况看，中华民族又到了最危险的时刻。中国将在20年内步入动荡期。导致中国在20年内步入动荡期的因素如下：

1、中国改革的某些严重失误。中国30多年来，改革的某些政策被西方严重战略误导。中国1978年的改革，目标是一场活化当时部分陷入僵化的计划经济。但随着改革的深入，这场改革的目标却变成了一场否定自主化民族化经济的改革；从而，大部分领导经济改革的官员放弃了自主化民族化立场，改而唯GDP是从，中国经济领域的很多产业不断被外资控制。随着产业的被殖民化，国民财富不断被外国资本淘走，而作为无实际价值的中国美元外汇储备却不断飙升。这样，中国就必然导致两个结果：一是国民财富生产力越来越弱（被外资控制）；二是定向通货膨胀越来越不可控（外汇美元兑换成人民币发行）。有这两个毒瘤，中国大部分下层民众想过幸福尊严的生活，就只能是幻想了。

2、中国人口的严重结构危机。30多年来的一胎化计划生育，给中国至少带来了如下问题：一是老年化少子化加速发展，整个社会人口结构生态与财富生产消费生态被人为严重破坏；二是男女性别比严重失衡，使未来大量男青年被判无妻徒刑，从而导致一个问题是涉黄涉黑组织化越来越多，第二个问题是这些人员由于无家可归对社会的报复会“很黄很暴力”；三是计划生育将对党与政府的形象造成严重的负面影响，计划生育承诺“计划生育好，政府帮养老”，严重的老年化将使养老金体系破产，大部分人将“老无所养”，到时，党与政府将失信于民。

    3、中国学术的严重殖民化贫血化。其实，任何社会学术，都不是科学：无论是西方的自由主义，还是西方的马克思主义，还是东方的儒教思潮，都是学术而已或说意识形态而已。而无论哪种主义或学术，都具有巨大的阐释空间，在哲学层面上，都可以自圆其说。一个主权完整的国家，在特定的历史阶段，信奉哪种学术或主义，都是可以的；但一定要有凝聚人心与激励人心的新阐释——因为一切学术都有局限，而社会发展是无限的——学术要使人信奉，必须要不断跟随社会发展并阐释预测社会发展。而自1978年后，我们并没有自主化自圆其说的国家理论来凝聚国民与激励国民。看看毛泽东时代，在当时，毛泽东的理论阐释是多么具有凝聚力与激励力。可以说，1978年后，中国学术界已经严重被殖民化学术占领高地，自主化民族化的学术严重贫血。没有大部分国民发自内心信奉的意识形态，这个国家必将走向离散与动荡。

下面，附一篇讲中国面临巨大通货膨胀压力的英文，让大家感知下问题的严重性。

                                              2011-6-8

China under great inflationary pressure: NDRC

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2011-06-08 16:55

BEIJING -- China is under great pressure amid imported inflation triggered by soaring international grain prices and oil prices, a senior economic planning official said on Wednesday.

The country has taken a series of measures to control climbing prices since the second and third quarters of last year, Xu Xianping, vice minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference.

The measures, such as raising interest rates, increasing market supplies and cutting fees, have shown some results, Xu said.

The most obvious change has been a decrease in vegetable prices, Xu said.

Countering price hikes is a top priority for the country, and measures to keep prices down will be gradually carried out over time, Xu said.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, rose to 5.3 percent in April, well above the government's annual inflation control ceiling of 4 percent.

The May CPI is scheduled to be published on June 14.

Analysts: Consumer inflation to rise in May

Qiao Hong, an economist from Goldman Sachs, said the CPI will climb to 5.5 percent in May from 5.3 percent in April.

Rising food prices, particularly for pork, are the main reason for the predicted increase, she said.

Pork prices have been rising steadily since early May, as demand increased during the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday.

Vegetable prices have also risen by nearly 20 percent, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Qiao expects food prices, which account for one-third of the CPI, to jump 12.1 percent in May from a year ago, higher than the 11.5 percent posted in April.

The China International Capital Corporation (CICC) also expects the CPI to rise to 5.5 percent, reports Shanghai Securities News. A lingering drought in south China will push up prices of aquaculture products, and non-food prices will continue to stay high, the company said in a report.

With higher inflation, analysts expect an interest rate hike to occur in June.

Economist Dong Xianan predicts that the rate hike will happen as soon as this weekend. Dong was quoted by the Shanghai Securities News as saying that the central bank is likely to hike the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks after macro-economic data is released next week.

The CICC said in its report that the government's monetary tightening measures will continue in the third quarter.

The CPI hit a 32-month high of 5.4 percent in March. To curb the rising rate of inflation, the central bank has hiked its benchmark interest rates four times since last October, and raised the RRR for commercial banks five times this year to a record high of 21 percent.

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